The question: will memory cost more or less in the coming months, and what should we do about it?
Quick rule: analysts expect prices to keep rising into 2027. Buy what your approved projects need, and do not rely on a quote past its validity date.
What is happening
- Contract prices are still rising. TrendForce expects DRAM contract prices to rise 10–15% in the last quarter of 2026 compared with the quarter before, and NAND flash 15–20%.
- Server memory is short. Server DRAM is expected to stay undersupplied this quarter as demand for server modules grows.
- Production is going to AI. Makers are directing their newest production lines to high-performance server products. Memory for AI accelerators (HBM) uses three to four times the factory capacity of standard memory for the same amount of storage.
- PC memory may tighten next. TrendForce expects PC DRAM supply could fall in 2027 as capacity moves to servers.
What pushes prices up or down
- AI server demand.
- Three makers control about 90% of supply and are favouring server products.
- DDR4 is being wound down.
- Demand for enterprise SSDs is growing fast, which lifts storage prices too.
- New factories. SK hynix’s M15X is reported to start in mid-2027 and Samsung’s P5 in late 2028.
- Weaker PC and phone sales as component costs rise.
- NAND flash may move from shortage towards surplus in the second half of 2027.
- CXMT is growing its output.
When it might ease
TrendForce expects DRAM to stay tight through 2028, with new factories adding meaningful supply only from the second half of 2027. These are forecasts, and memory forecasts have been revised before.
What it means for your purchase
- Budget: allow for higher memory and SSD costs in any PC or server quote for delivery in 2026–27.
- Quotes: expect short validity. Confirm price and lead time in writing before you raise a purchase order.
- Timing: once a project is approved, order the memory with the server, not later.
- DDR4 systems: if you plan to keep them, order upgrades and spares while supply lasts.
- Do not over-buy. Stock you do not need ties up budget, and no forecast is certain.
New to the terms? See business memory at a glance.
Buying for an organisation? Send us your hardware schedule or server models. We return supported part numbers, pricing and lead time.
Send us your scheduleSources
- TrendForce: memory contract price outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 (30 September 2026)
- Tech Times: report on TrendForce’s memory outlook (31 July 2026)
- Counterpoint Research: DRAM rankings, second quarter 2026 (4 August 2026)
- TrendForce: DDR4 phase-out plans (2 September 2025)
Market reporting as at 10 October 2026, not a price forecast or financial advice. Prices in Australia also depend on the exchange rate, freight and local stock. Full notice.
